{
  "updated": "2026-10-05",
  "lookback": "2026-08-07..2026-10-05",
  "headline": {
    "hit_rate_pct": 47.1,
    "sample_n": 429,
    "metric": "touched +2% measured from the next open (earliest tradable price)",
    "label": "Tier 1 filter",
    "filter": "score ≥ 15 + gap > 1%",
    "note": "hit = intraday touch from the first price you could actually buy at, not trade profit; live trading performance not published"
  },
  "legacy_from_close": {
    "hit_rate_pct": 86.0,
    "baseline_hit_rate_pct": 40.1,
    "metric": "moved ≥ 2% intraday (from prior close) — SUPERSEDED",
    "tautological_share_pct": 62.2,
    "why_superseded": "gap_next_open_pct and next_day_max_run_pct derive from the same close0 on the same bar, so gap>=2% forced a hit"
  },
  "survivorship": {
    "dropped_picks": 2049,
    "dropped_share_pct": 13.6,
    "reason": "no next trading day or no price data — concentrated in warrants, preferreds and delisted tickers",
    "note": "these picks are excluded from every rate on this page"
  },
  "net": {
    "hit_rate_pct": 83.2,
    "basis": "from prior close (legacy) — not comparable to headline",
    "avg_realistic_pnl_net_pct": -1.0
  },
  "big_move_5pct_rate": 18.4,
  "baseline": {
    "hit_rate_pct": 39.4,
    "sample_n": 12969,
    "label": "all flagged catalysts, no filter"
  },
  "source": "sec_outcome_rows.csv",
  "dedupe_key": "list_date+ticker"
}