Trading the Insider Unlock Window
After an IPO, insiders (founders, executives, early investors) are restricted from selling their shares for a set period — typically 90-180 days. This 'lockup period' prevents a flood of insider selling from crashing the stock immediately after the IPO. When the lockup expires, insiders can finally sell.
When the lockup expires, the number of shares available for trading can increase by 3-10x overnight. Even if insiders don't sell immediately, the market anticipates selling pressure and often prices it in 1-2 weeks before the expiration date. Stocks typically drop 1-3% around lockup expiration, but the setup is more nuanced than 'just short it.'
The contrarian play: if a stock drops 5-10% into a lockup expiration but insiders file Form 4s showing they're NOT selling, the relief bounce can be significant. Catalyst Edge cross-references lockup dates with Form 4 filings to identify these 'lockup + hold' setups. When insiders buy during their first opportunity to sell, it's one of the strongest bullish signals in the market.
Lockup terms are disclosed in the S-1 filing (IPO prospectus). Catalyst Edge parses S-1 filings to extract lockup dates and tracks them on a rolling calendar. The scanner alerts you when lockup expirations are approaching and cross-references with insider transaction data.
Catalyst Edge scans 300+ SEC filings every day and publishes a ranked watchlist before market open.
Open ScannerMost lockups are 180 days (6 months), but they can range from 90 to 365 days. Some IPOs have staggered lockups where different insider groups can sell at different times.
Not always. On average, stocks decline 1-3% around lockup expiration, but if insiders choose to hold (or buy more), the stock often rallies on the positive signal.
You looked the term up. The console shows it firing on live tickers this morning.
Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 48.9% of the time across 374 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 40.9%. That is a +8.0 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/
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