The earnings season playbook: filter by catalyst score going in, use the gap × catalyst overlay for pre-market entries, and ride the post-earnings drift for 3-5 days when the surprise is real.
Every quarter, roughly 4,000 companies report earnings within a 6-week window. Most traders watch analyst estimates and options implied moves. Few look at what insiders were doing in the weeks before the report. SEC filings filed during the "quiet period" (typically 2-4 weeks before earnings) contain signals that the market hasn't priced in yet.
Companies can't talk publicly during the quiet period, but insiders can still buy and sell stock. Form 4 filings during this window are among the strongest earnings predictors available to retail traders.
| Quarter | Reporting window | Peak weeks |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) | Mid-January to mid-February | Last week of Jan, first week of Feb |
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) | Mid-April to mid-May | Last week of Apr, first week of May |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) | Mid-July to mid-August | Last week of Jul, first week of Aug |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) | Mid-October to mid-November | Last week of Oct, first week of Nov |
About 70% of S&P 500 companies report within a 3-week window. The densest days typically see 50-100 reports before market open.
CEO or CFO open-market purchases 2-6 weeks before earnings. They know the numbers. Studies show pre-earnings insider buys precede beats 70%+ of the time.
Contract wins, FDA approvals, or partnership announcements filed during the quiet period. These events will likely boost the upcoming quarterly results.
Filing a shelf offering right before earnings often means management expects weak results and is preparing to raise cash through dilution.
Multiple insiders filing Form 4 sells in the weeks before earnings. Especially bearish when the selling is from C-suite officers, not just directors.
An activist investor crossing the 5% threshold (Schedule 13D) before earnings signals they expect a catalyst event.
Large call sweeps or block trades in the days before earnings, especially at strike prices well above current price, suggest informed bullish positioning.
Scan for Form 4 insider purchases at companies reporting in the upcoming season. Build initial watchlist from cluster buys and C-suite purchases.
Cross-reference insider buying with Catalyst Score. Filter for stocks scoring 10+ with recent insider activity. Check for recent positive 8-K filings.
Layer in options flow data. Look for unusual call buying or bullish sweeps that confirm the insider signal. Check dark pool prints for institutional accumulation.
Finalize position sizing. Review implied move from options market. Set stop losses. Know the reporting time (before open vs after close).
Read the 8-K earnings release and 10-Q. Watch for sympathy plays in the same sector. Strong beats often lift the entire industry group.
Catalyst Edge scans every filing overnight and delivers a scored watchlist before pre-market. Don't miss the insider signal.
Open ScannerEarnings season happens four times a year, starting about two weeks after each quarter ends. The busiest weeks are typically mid-January through mid-February (Q4), mid-April through mid-May (Q1), mid-July through mid-August (Q2), and mid-October through mid-November (Q3). About 70% of S&P 500 companies report within a 3-week window each season.
Form 4 insider buying in the 30 days before earnings is the strongest predictor. If a CEO buys shares weeks before reporting, they likely know the numbers are strong. 8-K filings about contract wins, product launches, or partnership announcements filed during the quiet period also signal positive results. Conversely, S-3 shelf registrations filed right before earnings often precede weak results followed by dilution.
Build a pre-earnings watchlist by scanning for companies with recent insider buying (Form 4), positive 8-K catalysts, and high catalyst scores. Avoid stocks with recent S-3 registrations or insider selling. Use options flow data to confirm institutional positioning, and look for convergence between insider buying and unusual call activity. This approach identifies stocks most likely to beat expectations.
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