What catalyst score should I trade?

Scores above 14 are considered high-conviction setups with strong alignment across multiple signals. Scores between 8-14 are moderate setups worth monitoring. Scores below 8 indicate weaker or mixed signals. The scoring weights are auto-tuned daily based on historical outcome data.

How is the catalyst score calculated?

The score aggregates weighted inputs including: SEC filing type and recency, insider transaction clusters (Form 4), options flow sentiment and unusual volume, short float percentage and squeeze potential, price momentum and gap percentage, sector momentum, and news sentiment. Weights are auto-calibrated using 60-day outcome analysis.

What Is a Catalyst Score? How We Score SEC Filing Signals

Q: What is a catalyst score?

A catalyst score is a composite numerical rating that quantifies the strength of trading signals associated with a stock's SEC filing activity. It combines filing type importance, insider buying patterns, options flow sentiment, short interest dynamics, and price momentum into a single actionable number. Higher scores indicate stronger catalyst setups.

A catalyst score is a composite numerical rating that quantifies the trading signal strength of a stock based on its SEC filing activity, insider behavior, options flow, short interest dynamics, and price momentum. It distills multiple data sources into a single number that traders use to prioritize setups.

Catalyst Edge scans 789+ SEC filings daily and scores each ticker automatically. Scores above 14.0 are considered high-conviction setups. The scoring weights are auto-calibrated every 24 hours using 60-day outcome analysis.

Score Components

The catalyst score is a weighted sum of these factors:

30% Filing Type 8-K, Form 4, S-3, SC 13D weight differently

20% Insider Activity Form 4 cluster density and dollar volume

15% Options Flow Put/call ratio, unusual volume, sweep orders

15% Short Interest Short float %, days to cover, squeeze potential

10% Price Momentum Gap %, relative volume, pre-market activity

10% Sector + News Sector momentum, headline sentiment, novelty

Note: Exact weights are auto-tuned daily by tune_scoring_config.py, which analyzes 60-day outcome data to optimize for forward returns. The percentages above are approximate starting weights.

Score Tiers

Score Range	Tier	Interpretation	Action
14.0+	High Conviction	Multiple signals aligning strongly	Primary watchlist, active trading candidate
8.0 - 13.9	Moderate	Some signals present but incomplete alignment	Monitor for development, set alerts
Below 8.0	Low / Noise	Weak or mixed signals	Research only, not actionable

How Filing Types Affect Scores

Not all SEC filings carry equal weight. The scoring engine ranks filing types by their historical impact on price:

8-K (Material Event): Highest base weight — these announce acquisitions, earnings surprises, management changes
Form 4 (Insider Trade): High weight when multiple insiders buy within 7 days (cluster signal)
SC 13D (Activist Position): High weight — signals activist investor involvement
S-3 (Shelf Registration): Negative weight — signals potential dilution
S-1 (IPO Registration): Context-dependent — lockup expiration creates secondary catalyst

Self-Calibrating Weights

Unlike static scoring systems, our weights adapt to market conditions. Every 24 hours, the scoring engine:

Analyzes the last 60 days of scored picks and their actual price outcomes
Measures which factors contributed most to winning trades
Adjusts weights to amplify factors with strong predictive power
Dampens factors that showed weak correlation with outcomes

This means the scoring engine gets smarter over time and adapts to regime changes in the market.

Using Catalyst Scores in Practice

Screen: Filter the scanner for scores above 14.0 to find the day's highest-conviction setups
Prioritize: Sort by score to allocate attention to the strongest signals first
Validate: Cross-reference high scores with the sector heatmap and options flow
Alert: Set filing alerts on tickers near your score threshold
Track: Add high-scoring tickers to your watchlist for daily monitoring

See today's highest-scoring catalysts

Our scanner updates daily with fresh catalyst scores across 1,600+ tickers.

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Related Glossary

What Is an 8-K Filing? — The highest-impact catalyst filing type
What Is Form 4? — Insider trading disclosures
Short Squeeze Scanner — How squeeze potential factors into the score
Dark Pool Signals — Off-exchange volume as a scoring input
Methodology — Full scoring methodology documentation

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