PUBLIC SCOREBOARD · 2026-11-05

Pick Scoreboard

Every Catalyst Edge call from the score≥15 published cohort, audited against next-day price action. Wilson lower bounds (95% confidence) shown alongside raw hit rates so small-sample claims can't dominate. Causal lift = excess return attributable to the catalyst itself, after subtracting same-day peer cohort baseline.

This is not financial advice. Numbers update each pipeline cycle. Methodology details at /methodology/. Walk-forward holdout numbers (out-of-sample only) at /trust/.

Rolling-window performance

7-day window

44.35%
hit rate (+2% intraday)
35.91%
Wilson lower bound (95%)
124
picks evaluated
+0.882%
avg alpha vs SPY
✅ Best call: PTHS (8-K) on 2026-10-30 → +23.03% alpha
⚠️ Worst call: XXII (8-K) on 2026-11-03 → -14.15% alpha

30-day window

38.81%
hit rate (+2% intraday)
36.85%
Wilson lower bound (95%)
2332
picks evaluated
-0.668%
avg alpha vs SPY
✅ Best call: SHFS (8-K) on 2026-10-20 → +70.59% alpha
⚠️ Worst call: AARD (8-K) on 2026-10-22 → -64.29% alpha

90-day window

38.9%
hit rate (+2% intraday)
37.56%
Wilson lower bound (95%)
5021
picks evaluated
+3.852%
avg alpha vs SPY
✅ Best call: VSEE (8-K) on 2026-09-23 → +8900.08% alpha
⚠️ Worst call: CMBMF (8-K) on 2026-09-28 → -88.59% alpha

Top tickers by Wilson lower bound (causal-lift)

Tickers we've called multiple times, ranked by the most conservative win-rate estimate. Causal lift is excess move beyond the same-day peer cohort baseline.

TickerPicksHit %Wilson loCausal liftSPY alphaLast
AITX 23 100.0% 85.69% -9.066% -9.255% 2026-10-26
CMMB 17 100.0% 81.57% -2.017% -2.049% 2026-11-03
APPS 14 100.0% 78.47% -2.664% -3.044% 2026-10-15
POM 14 100.0% 78.47% 8.339% 7.93% 2026-10-19
XCH 12 100.0% 75.75% 1.699% 1.499% 2026-11-03
WPRT 12 100.0% 75.75% 1.191% 1.204% 2026-10-16
BOLD 12 100.0% 75.75% -1.315% -1.753% 2026-11-03
GWAV 11 100.0% 74.12% -5.43% -5.295% 2026-10-30
ETS 11 100.0% 74.12% 2.458% 2.383% 2026-10-28
INDP 10 100.0% 72.25% 8.842% 8.43% 2026-10-20
LTRX 10 100.0% 72.25% 3.441% 3.268% 2026-09-25
SHOE 10 100.0% 72.25% 2.23% 2.161% 2026-10-15
EMAT 10 100.0% 72.25% -2.666% -2.866% 2026-10-29
SVRE 10 100.0% 72.25% -0.943% -1.055% 2026-10-26
EOSE 10 100.0% 72.25% 1.501% 0.996% 2026-09-18
AIFA 10 100.0% 72.25% 0.52% 0.261% 2026-10-14
AMCI 10 100.0% 72.25% 4.602% 4.423% 2026-10-30
GFAI 10 100.0% 72.25% -4.446% -4.956% 2026-10-27
UPC 10 100.0% 72.25% 0.054% -0.185% 2026-10-07
AEON 10 100.0% 72.25% 3.52% 3.439% 2026-11-03
CRIS 10 100.0% 72.25% 15.102% 14.64% 2026-11-03
CRMT 22 90.91% 72.18% 1.095% 0.912% 2026-11-02
UUU 21 90.48% 71.09% 2.274% 2.26% 2026-10-22
AVAT 9 100.0% 70.08% 1.058% 0.9% 2026-10-09
ZONE 9 100.0% 70.08% 0.699% 0.833% 2026-10-30
MYSE 9 100.0% 70.08% 0.496% 0.451% 2026-09-23
NMAD 9 100.0% 70.08% 0.705% 0.309% 2026-09-30
RCT 9 100.0% 70.08% -0.709% -0.856% 2026-10-16
CMT 9 100.0% 70.08% 0.851% 0.548% 2026-11-03
BSET 9 100.0% 70.08% 5.161% 4.737% 2026-10-14
Live: scoops · protocol · trust ledger · methodology · scanner
Auto-published from /opt/catalyst/build_scoreboard.py · last regen 2026-11-05 UTC. Wilson lower bounds use z=1.96 (95% CI). Score≥15 = published cohort floor.

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