Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · AAL
CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-03

$AAL

industrials · convergence 3 · conviction WATCH
Convergence Score
3
Conviction
WATCH
Signals Firing
7
Track Record
2/8
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Why $AAL?

AAL 3 WATCH industrials

Quantitative

  • Net Income (CY2026Q2): $71.0M (-88.2% YoY)

Catalysts

  • Multi-spoke convergence: 7 convergent signals fired: alpha, dcf, edgar_phrases, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods

Risks

  • Position-sizing discipline: Conviction WATCH (3 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged

Bear case

  • Multiple compression: If breadth deteriorates, industrials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

  • LCII via consumer r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 25)
  • EVGO via consumer r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 23)
  • PURR via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 27)
  • MAC via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 24)
  • IMSR via energy r=-0.75 divergent (score 6)
  • DK via energy r=-0.75 divergent (score 5)

Signals Firing

alphadcfedgar_phrasesauto_macro_adp_payrollsauto_macro_durable_goodsauto_macro_fx_ratesauto_macro_treasury_fiscal
Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Pick Track Record

DateListNext-day max runNext-day closeHit +2%?
2026-10-29sec_top_gappers-1.1%-1.4%—
2026-10-29sec_top_moat_core-1.1%-1.4%—
2026-10-26sec_top_gappers+3.7%+3.4%✓ hit
2026-10-26sec_top_moat_core+3.7%+3.4%✓ hit
2026-10-23sec_top_gappers+1.8%+0.7%—
2026-10-23sec_top_moat_core+1.8%+0.7%—
2026-10-22sec_top_gappers-2.4%-3.9%—
2026-10-22sec_top_moat_core-2.4%-3.9%—
Lifetime: 2/8 wins · hit-rate 25.0% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for AAL. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 44.0% of the time across 414 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 38.4%. That is a +5.6 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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