CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-10
$ALV
consumer · convergence -8 · conviction WATCH
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Why $ALV?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $100.0M (-40.1% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: audit_extras, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_credit_spreads
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-8 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, consumer-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
VCTR via financials r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 30)
NTST via financials r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 28)
AMPY via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 29)
B via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 22)
AIOT via comms r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 28)
SKYD via comms r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 20)
Signals Firing
audit_extras auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_credit_spreads auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers +1.7% +0.5% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_core +1.7% +0.5% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +1.0% +0.6% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_core +1.0% +0.6% —
Lifetime: 0/4 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket VCTR via financials · score 30 NTST via financials · score 28 AMPY via materials · score 29 B via materials · score 22 AIOT via comms · score 28 SKYD via comms · score 20
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