CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-12
$APXCF
materials · convergence -8 · conviction WATCH
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Why $APXCF?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -8 (5 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 5 convergent signals fired: uplist, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-8 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, materials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 0)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score -2)
LUNR via industrials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 26)
IBP via industrials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 17)
ONDS via comms r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 4)
FWONA via comms r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 2)
Signals Firing
uplist auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-10 sec_top_gappers +12.9% +12.9% ✓ hit 2026-11-10 sec_top_moat_emerging +12.9% +12.9% ✓ hit 2026-11-02 sec_top_gappers -7.0% -10.5% — 2026-11-02 sec_top_moat_emerging -7.0% -10.5% — 2026-10-30 sec_top_gappers +6.8% +6.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-30 sec_top_moat_emerging +6.8% +6.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers -8.3% -10.8% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging -8.3% -10.8% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_gappers +18.9% +14.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-22 sec_top_moat_emerging +18.9% +14.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers +1.4% -4.7% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.4% -4.7% —
Lifetime: 8/16 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket OPEN via real_estate · score 0 AEI via real_estate · score -2 LUNR via industrials · score 26 IBP via industrials · score 17 ONDS via comms · score 4 FWONA via comms · score 2
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