What is the Catalyst Edge convergence score for ARAI?

As of 2026-11-12, ARAI has a convergence score of -17 with conviction tier AVOID and 9 independent signals firing. Score is a weighted aggregate across SEC filings, insider activity, options flow, dark-pool prints, short-squeeze metrics, and macro regime.

How is ARAI's score calculated?

Each signal contributes weighted points; weights are auto-tuned weekly against published outcome history. Full methodology + audit at https://catalystedgescanner.com/methodology/ and https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/.

How accurate has Catalyst Edge been on ARAI?

On the last 8 published picks featuring ARAI, 3 hit the +2% intraday threshold (38% hit rate). Outcomes audited daily.

Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · ARAI

CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-12

$ARAI

industrials · convergence -17 · conviction AVOID

Convergence Score

-17

Conviction

AVOID

Signals Firing

Track Record

3/8

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Why $ARAI?

ARAI -17 AVOID industrials

Quantitative

Net Income (CY2026Q2): $-14.1M (-281.6% YoY)

Catalysts

Corporate action: warrant_exercise 2026-10-09

Risks

Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk: Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
Auditor change / restatement: substantial_doubt on

Bear case

Squeeze unwind: Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

BWEN via materials r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 4)
RETO via materials r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 4)
YETI via consumer r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 19)
QXO via consumer r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 5)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score -5)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score -7)

Signals Firing

alphafinra_shortftdpillaudit_extrasauto_macro_adp_payrollsauto_macro_banrep_colombiaauto_macro_bls_employmentauto_macro_durable_goods

Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

DEF 14A2026-11-10T16:54:24-05:00View on EDGAR →

Pick Track Record

Date	List	Next-day max run	Next-day close	Hit +2%?
2026-10-13	sec_clean_gappers	-4.9%	-7.6%	—
2026-10-13	sec_top_gappers	-4.9%	-7.6%	—
2026-10-13	sec_top_moat_emerging	-4.9%	-7.6%	—
2026-10-12	sec_top_gappers	-2.0%	-4.6%	—
2026-10-12	sec_top_moat_emerging	-2.0%	-4.6%	—
2026-09-29	sec_clean_gappers	+11.0%	+3.8%	✓ hit
2026-09-29	sec_top_gappers	+11.0%	+3.8%	✓ hit
2026-09-29	sec_top_moat_emerging	+11.0%	+3.8%	✓ hit

Lifetime: 3/8 wins · hit-rate 37.5% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

BWENvia materials · score 4
RETOvia materials · score 4
YETIvia consumer · score 19
QXOvia consumer · score 5
OPENvia real_estate · score -5
AEIvia real_estate · score -7

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

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