CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-06
$AUGO
materials · convergence -10 · conviction AVOID
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Why $AUGO?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -10 (5 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 5 convergent signals fired: finra_short, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates, auto_macro_yield_curve
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction AVOID (-10 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
DNUT via consumer r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 18)
LCII via consumer r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 18)
FCPT via financials r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 15)
CBL via financials r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 14)
MNST via staples r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 8)
CPB via staples r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 2)
Signals Firing
finra_short auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-12 sec_top_gappers +0.1% -4.2% — 2026-10-12 sec_top_moat_core +0.1% -4.2% — 2026-10-09 sec_clean_value +1.9% +0.6% — 2026-10-09 sec_top_gappers +1.9% +0.6% — 2026-10-09 sec_top_moat_core +1.9% +0.6% — 2026-10-02 sec_clean_value +5.5% +3.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-02 sec_top_gappers +5.5% +3.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-02 sec_top_moat_core +5.5% +3.9% ✓ hit 2026-09-21 sec_top_gappers +4.2% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-09-21 sec_top_moat_core +4.2% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-09-18 sec_clean_value +1.7% +1.0% — 2026-09-18 sec_top_gappers +1.7% +1.0% —
Lifetime: 5/13 wins · hit-rate 38.5% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket DNUT via consumer · score 18 LCII via consumer · score 18 FCPT via financials · score 15 CBL via financials · score 14 MNST via staples · score 8 CPB via staples · score 2
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