CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$CNL
materials · convergence -5 · conviction WATCH
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Why $CNL?
Quantitative
Forward EPS estimate : $($0.13) (vs $($0.13) last yr YoY)
Market cap : $1,062,788,540
Convergence score : -5 (6 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 6 convergent signals fired: earnings, sc13d, audit_extras, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-5 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Earnings binary : Print-day moves can swing ±15% — gap risk both directions
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
TAP via staples r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 9)
CHSN via staples r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 5)
VCTR via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 19)
FCPT via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 15)
HYFM via consumer r=+0.82 sympathetic (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=+0.82 sympathetic (score 8)
Signals Firing
earnings sc13d audit_extras auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-03 sec_top_gappers +6.0% +5.7% ✓ hit 2026-11-03 sec_top_moat_emerging +6.0% +5.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_gappers +3.8% +3.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.8% +3.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +4.4% +4.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.4% +4.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers +1.4% -0.8% — 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.4% -0.8% — 2026-10-13 sec_top_gappers +5.7% -6.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-13 sec_top_moat_emerging +5.7% -6.1% ✓ hit 2026-09-24 sec_top_gappers +0.4% -0.7% — 2026-09-24 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.4% -0.7% —
Lifetime: 10/18 wins · hit-rate 55.6% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket TAP via staples · score 9 CHSN via staples · score 5 VCTR via financials · score 19 FCPT via financials · score 15 HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8
Earnings Catalyst No recent earnings event.
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Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks
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Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.