CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-13
$CTVA materials · convergence 15 · conviction WATCH
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Why $CTVA?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $6.38B (-119.0% YoY) Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $1.16B (-11.6% YoY) Net Margin (CY2026Q3) : -23.2%
Catalysts
Corporate action : spinoff 2026-11-12 Corporate action : spinoff 2026-10-01 Unusual options activity : P/C ratio 0.67, gamma score 1 2026-11-12 Dark pool activity : Volume 2.0x 30-day average; price chg -24.3%
Risks
Auditor change / restatement : valuation_allowance on Late filing (NT) : Filed Form NT — accounting / control concern
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, materials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
EXPD via industrials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 29) ASYS via industrials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 23) SKYD via comms r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 22) LBTYA via comms r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 14) AEI via real_estate r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 17) AGNT via real_estate r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 15)
Signals Firing
darkpool alpha pill audit_extras auto_sec_audit auto_sec_poison_pill auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_wiki_pageviews
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-05 sec_clean_gappers +13.4% +12.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_gappers +13.4% +12.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +13.4% +12.3% ✓ hit 2026-09-30 sec_top_gappers +23.9% +7.9% ✓ hit 2026-09-30 sec_top_moat_emerging +23.9% +7.9% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 5/5 wins · hit-rate 100.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket EXPD via industrials · score 29 ASYS via industrials · score 23 SKYD via comms · score 22 LBTYA via comms · score 14 AEI via real_estate · score 17 AGNT via real_estate · score 15 Earnings Catalyst No recent earnings event.
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Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks
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