CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-04
$DLTR retail · convergence 5 · conviction WATCH
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Why $DLTR?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $4.89B (+7.0% YoY) Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $514.5M (+173.1% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 7 convergent signals fired: finra_short, orphan_lean, xbrl_ni, oge_exec, auto_macro_adp_payrolls
Risks
Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk : Borrow rate 1.0%, distress score 9
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
XRT via retail r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 9) TGT via retail r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 5) DG via retail r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 4) HD via retail r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 0) COST via retail r=+0.00 intra-sector (score -2) TJX via retail r=+0.00 intra-sector (score -5)
Signals Firing
finra_short orphan_lean xbrl_ni oge_exec auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-09-25 sec_top_gappers +2.5% +1.7% ✓ hit 2026-09-25 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.5% +1.7% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 2/2 wins · hit-rate 100.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket XRT via retail · score 9 TGT via retail · score 5 DG via retail · score 4 HD via retail · score 0 COST via retail · score -2 TJX via retail · score -5 Earnings Catalyst No recent earnings event.
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