What is the Catalyst Edge convergence score for ERO?

As of 2026-10-02, ERO has a convergence score of -18 with conviction tier AVOID and 5 independent signals firing. Score is a weighted aggregate across SEC filings, insider activity, options flow, dark-pool prints, short-squeeze metrics, and macro regime.

How is ERO's score calculated?

Each signal contributes weighted points; weights are auto-tuned weekly against published outcome history. Full methodology + audit at https://catalystedgescanner.com/methodology/ and https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/.

How accurate has Catalyst Edge been on ERO?

On the last 2 published picks featuring ERO, 0 hit the +2% intraday threshold (0% hit rate). Outcomes audited daily.

Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · ERO

CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-10-02

$ERO

materials · convergence -18 · conviction AVOID

Convergence Score

-18

Conviction

AVOID

Signals Firing

Track Record

0/2

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Why $ERO?

ERO -18 AVOID materials

Quantitative

Convergence score: -18 (5 signals firing YoY)

Catalysts

Multi-spoke convergence: 5 convergent signals fired: finra_short, auto_macro_credit_spreads, auto_macro_edgar_fts, auto_macro_term_premium, auto_macro_treasury_fiscal

Risks

Position-sizing discipline: Conviction AVOID (-18 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged

Bear case

Squeeze unwind: Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

SMA via financials r=+0.86 sympathetic (score 24)
CBOE via financials r=+0.86 sympathetic (score 18)
VOYG via industrials r=+0.75 sympathetic (score 18)
SEI via industrials r=+0.75 sympathetic (score 14)
FAMI via staples r=+0.66 sympathetic (score 6)
VYLR via staples r=+0.66 sympathetic (score -2)

Finance Desk Verdict

Independent agent review — valuation, statement audit, and earnings read on the latest filing.

Valuation: fairAudit: cleanDesk score: 46/100

ERO is a quality low-cost Brazilian copper producer with a credible growth ramp, but 90-day momentum has already extracted most near-term upside, the filing-day tape was mildly negative, and the 6-K press release content is uncached — hold for the 20-F or a confirmed production beat before acting.

Bull case: ERO is a low-cost, high-growth copper producer with a demonstrable production ramp at Boa Esperança. Structural copper supply deficit supports sustained pricing power. Stock has pulled back ~11% from the August $40.40 peak, offering a cooler entry vs. the momentum top. Quality score of 60 reflects genuine operational substance.

Bear case: The 90-day 24% rally and 180-day +11% gain mean a substantial re-rating has already occurred. The filing-day -2.6% move suggests Q3 numbers may have disappointed. Scanner moat_score of 0 and momentum_score of 26 confirm waning short-term edge. Copper is cyclically sensitive; any China demand miss or U.S. macro slowdown compresses ERO's premium multiple rapidly. Full filing text is uncached, adding material uncertainty to this read.

Signals Firing

finra_shortauto_macro_credit_spreadsauto_macro_edgar_ftsauto_macro_term_premiumauto_macro_treasury_fiscal

Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

6-K2026-10-01T17:15:03-04:00View on EDGAR →

Pick Track Record

Date	List	Next-day max run	Next-day close	Hit +2%?
2026-09-25	sec_top_gappers	+0.3%	-1.2%	—
2026-09-25	sec_top_moat_emerging	+0.3%	-1.2%	—

Lifetime: 0/2 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

SMAvia financials · score 24
CBOEvia financials · score 18
VOYGvia industrials · score 18
SEIvia industrials · score 14
FAMIvia staples · score 6
VYLRvia staples · score -2

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for ERO. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 48.9% of the time across 372 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 39.8%. That is a +9.1 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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