CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-06
$EXR
financials · convergence -9 · conviction WATCH
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Why $EXR?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $874.2M (+387.0% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $263.5M (+5.5% YoY)
Net Margin (CY2026Q3) : 27.8%
Catalysts
Buyback authorization : Buyback authorization 2026-10-27
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-9 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
TILE via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 20)
ATMU via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 15)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score -1)
OMH via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score -7)
AMR via materials r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 27)
SLVM via materials r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 14)
Signals Firing
finra_short oge_exec buyback fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-02 sec_top_gappers +0.2% +0.2% — 2026-11-02 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.2% +0.2% — 2026-10-27 sec_clean_gappers +4.5% +0.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_gappers +4.5% +0.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.5% +0.1% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 3/5 wins · hit-rate 60.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket TILE via consumer · score 20 ATMU via consumer · score 15 AEI via real_estate · score -1 OMH via real_estate · score -7 AMR via materials · score 27 SLVM via materials · score 14
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