CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-06
$FLEX
semis · convergence -5 · conviction WATCH
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Why $FLEX?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -5 (8 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Corporate action : spinoff 2026-10-28
Corporate action : spinoff 2026-10-14
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-5 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, semis-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
QBTS via tech r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 7)
ORBS via tech r=+0.96 sympathetic (score 4)
MRNA via biotech r=+0.88 sympathetic (score 44)
ANIK via biotech r=+0.88 sympathetic (score 15)
FLR via industrials r=+0.85 sympathetic (score 10)
CTM via industrials r=+0.85 sympathetic (score 7)
Signals Firing
sc13d oge_exec audit_extras auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-02 sec_top_gappers +8.1% +4.6% ✓ hit 2026-11-02 sec_top_moat_emerging +8.1% +4.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-30 sec_top_gappers +2.9% -2.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-30 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.9% -2.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-28 sec_top_gappers +2.4% +0.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-28 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.4% +0.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_gappers +12.5% +11.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_moat_emerging +12.5% +11.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +10.4% +8.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +10.4% +8.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers -3.5% -11.1% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging -3.5% -11.1% —
Lifetime: 24/43 wins · hit-rate 55.8% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket QBTS via tech · score 7 ORBS via tech · score 4 MRNA via biotech · score 44 ANIK via biotech · score 15 FLR via industrials · score 10 CTM via industrials · score 7
Earnings Catalyst No recent earnings event.
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