CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-12
$FPH
real_estate · convergence -8 · conviction WATCH
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Why $FPH?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $13.9M (+86.0% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $10.9M (+227.1% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 6 convergent signals fired: sc13d, xbrl_ni, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-8 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, real_estate-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
KNTK via utilities r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 2)
MNTK via utilities r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 1)
DPC via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 14)
LAC via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 12)
QXO via consumer r=+0.94 sympathetic (score 13)
YETI via consumer r=+0.94 sympathetic (score 12)
Signals Firing
sc13d xbrl_ni auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers +1.9% -0.5% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.9% -0.5% — 2026-10-27 sec_top_gappers +1.2% +0.2% — 2026-10-27 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.2% +0.2% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +0.7% -1.9% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.7% -1.9% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_gappers -3.6% -6.7% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_moat_emerging -3.6% -6.7% —
Lifetime: 0/8 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket KNTK via utilities · score 2 MNTK via utilities · score 1 DPC via materials · score 14 LAC via materials · score 12 QXO via consumer · score 13 YETI via consumer · score 12
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