CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$GDLC
financials · convergence -19 · conviction AVOID
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Why $GDLC?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -19 (6 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 6 convergent signals fired: sec_crypto, fed_overlay, sector_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Insider planned sale (Form 144) : <b>Filed:</b> 2026-11-04 <b>AccNo:</b> 0001976415-26-000039 <b>Size:</b> 5 KB 2026-11-04
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, financials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
HYFM via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
ARIS via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 22)
MUR via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
sec_crypto fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-05 sec_top_gappers +1.0% -0.2% — 2026-10-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% -0.2% — 2026-09-08 sec_top_gappers +1.7% -0.4% — 2026-09-08 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.7% -0.4% —
Lifetime: 0/4 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8 AEI via real_estate · score 1 OPEN via real_estate · score 1 ARIS via materials · score 22 MUR via materials · score 19
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