CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$GLRE
financials · convergence -4 · conviction WATCH
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Why $GLRE?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $137.5M (-14.2% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $-29.6M (n/a YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 10 convergent signals fired: fed_overlay, audit_extras, sector_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-4 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, financials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
SBH via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 38)
TH via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 28)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 12)
AIRE via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 3)
CVE via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 26)
WTTR via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
fed_overlay audit_extras sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-03 sec_top_gappers +7.3% +7.1% ✓ hit 2026-11-03 sec_top_moat_emerging +7.3% +7.1% ✓ hit 2026-09-21 sec_top_gappers +1.1% +0.1% — 2026-09-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.1% +0.1% —
Lifetime: 2/4 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket SBH via consumer · score 38 TH via consumer · score 28 AEI via real_estate · score 12 AIRE via real_estate · score 3 CVE via materials · score 26 WTTR via materials · score 19
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