CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$ITUB
financials · convergence -3 · conviction WATCH
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Why $ITUB?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -3 (7 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 7 convergent signals fired: finra_short, finra_regsho, fed_overlay, sector_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls
Risks
Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk : Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
HYFM via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
ARIS via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 22)
MUR via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
finra_short finra_regsho fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +4.0% -0.4% ✓ hit 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.0% -0.4% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_gappers +2.8% +2.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.8% +2.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-02 sec_top_gappers +18.6% +15.5% ✓ hit 2026-10-02 sec_top_moat_emerging +18.6% +15.5% ✓ hit 2026-09-23 sec_top_gappers +0.4% -1.2% — 2026-09-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.4% -1.2% — 2026-09-21 sec_top_gappers +0.5% -0.2% — 2026-09-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.5% -0.2% — 2026-09-18 sec_top_gappers +3.2% +3.0% ✓ hit 2026-09-18 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.2% +3.0% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 8/16 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8 AEI via real_estate · score 1 OPEN via real_estate · score 1 ARIS via materials · score 22 MUR via materials · score 19
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