CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$JPM-PM Unclassified · convergence 12 · conviction 1R focus
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Why $JPM-PM?
Quantitative
Last price : $16.09ATR(14) : $0.214Setup : Entry $16.09 → Stop $16.30 → T1 $15.88 → T2 $15.66 (1.30% R per leg YoY)
Catalysts
Dilution / supply forms : Recent SEC filings: 424B3, 424B2 — bearish supply signalShort scanner signals : 424B3 (+4) · 424B2 (+4)Recency : Last bearish filing 2237 minutes agoSEC filing link : https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000121390026115525/0001213900-26-115525-index.htm
Risks
Squeeze risk : Stop $16.30 = 1.3% gap above entry — single news catalyst can blow through stopHard-to-borrow tail : Bearish setups on RegSHO threshold names face borrow-rate spikes and recall risk
Bear case
Bullish surprise (short-thesis failure) : If issuer cancels offering or upsizes deal terms, dilution premise resolves favorably and shorts cover above $16.30Sector rotation tailwind : Sector group bid in a risk-on day means even weak names rally — short timing matters
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
CRIS via biotech r=+0.00 score-cohort (score 26) VSEC via industrials r=+0.00 score-cohort (score 23) ARIS via materials r=+0.00 score-cohort (score 22) LMAT via biotech r=+0.00 score-cohort (score 20) MUR via materials r=+0.00 score-cohort (score 19) APP via tech r=+0.00 score-cohort (score 19)
Signals Firing
424B3 (+4) 424B2 (+4)
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-02 sec_top_gappers +0.8% -0.2% — 2026-11-02 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.8% -0.2% — 2026-10-30 sec_top_gappers -0.2% -1.0% — 2026-10-30 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.2% -1.0% — 2026-10-28 sec_top_gappers +0.8% +0.4% — 2026-10-28 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.8% +0.4% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +1.3% +0.4% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.3% +0.4% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +1.0% -0.4% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% -0.4% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers +0.9% +0.4% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.9% +0.4% —
Lifetime: 2/49 wins · hit-rate 4.1% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket CRIS via biotech · score 26 VSEC via industrials · score 23 ARIS via materials · score 22 LMAT via biotech · score 20 MUR via materials · score 19 APP via tech · score 19 Earnings Catalyst No recent earnings event.
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