CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$KALU
materials · convergence -7 · conviction WATCH
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Why $KALU?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $96.8M (+317.2% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 6 convergent signals fired: sc13d, xbrl_ni, audit_extras, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-7 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, materials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
TAP via staples r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 15)
CPB via staples r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 2)
CI via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 26)
HOMB via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 24)
DNUT via consumer r=+0.82 sympathetic (score 20)
LYTS via consumer r=+0.82 sympathetic (score 14)
Signals Firing
sc13d xbrl_ni audit_extras auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers -0.4% -3.0% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.4% -3.0% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +10.6% +10.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +10.6% +10.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +1.2% -1.7% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.2% -1.7% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers -11.0% -25.3% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging -11.0% -25.3% —
Lifetime: 2/8 wins · hit-rate 25.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket TAP via staples · score 15 CPB via staples · score 2 CI via financials · score 26 HOMB via financials · score 24 DNUT via consumer · score 20 LYTS via consumer · score 14
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