CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$LGHL
financials · convergence -3 · conviction WATCH
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Why $LGHL?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -3 (6 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 6 convergent signals fired: ftd, fed_overlay, sector_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-3 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, financials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
HYFM via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
ARIS via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 22)
MUR via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
ftd fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-09-30 sec_top_gappers -13.0% -26.8% — 2026-09-30 sec_top_moat_emerging -13.0% -26.8% — 2026-09-29 sec_top_gappers +47.0% +25.9% ✓ hit 2026-09-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +47.0% +25.9% ✓ hit 2026-09-24 sec_top_gappers +4.6% -0.8% ✓ hit 2026-09-24 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.6% -0.8% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 4/6 wins · hit-rate 66.7% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8 AEI via real_estate · score 1 OPEN via real_estate · score 1 ARIS via materials · score 22 MUR via materials · score 19
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