CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-06
$LOOP
materials · convergence -20 · conviction AVOID
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Why $LOOP?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $-3.4M (+177.0% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 4 convergent signals fired: auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates, auto_macro_yield_curve
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction AVOID (-20 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, materials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
WEN via consumer r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 17)
PLBY via consumer r=+0.93 sympathetic (score 16)
AFL via financials r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 38)
FCPT via financials r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 24)
TAP via staples r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 12)
DOLE via staples r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 7)
Signals Firing
auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers +1.6% -0.3% — 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.6% -0.3% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_gappers -2.1% -4.5% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_moat_emerging -2.1% -4.5% — 2026-10-16 sec_top_gappers +7.6% +0.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-16 sec_top_moat_emerging +7.6% +0.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-15 sec_clean_gappers -3.2% -11.3% — 2026-10-15 sec_top_gappers -3.2% -11.3% — 2026-10-15 sec_top_moat_emerging -3.2% -11.3% — 2026-10-01 sec_clean_gappers +2.2% -0.4% ✓ hit 2026-10-01 sec_top_gappers +2.2% -0.4% ✓ hit 2026-10-01 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.2% -0.4% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 8/17 wins · hit-rate 47.1% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket WEN via consumer · score 17 PLBY via consumer · score 16 AFL via financials · score 38 FCPT via financials · score 24 TAP via staples · score 12 DOLE via staples · score 7
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Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks
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