CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-06
$MBC
consumer · convergence -12 · conviction AVOID
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Why $MBC?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $815.2M (+11.5% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $-57.6M (-254.4% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: finra_short, sc13d, oge_exec, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_bls_employment
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction AVOID (-12 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
HUM via financials r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 24)
ACRE via financials r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 18)
AMR via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 27)
SLVM via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 14)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.95 sympathetic (score -1)
OMH via real_estate r=+0.95 sympathetic (score -7)
Signals Firing
finra_short sc13d oge_exec auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +3.4% +3.4% ✓ hit 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.4% +3.4% ✓ hit 2026-09-24 sec_top_gappers +3.9% +1.7% ✓ hit 2026-09-24 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.9% +1.7% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 4/4 wins · hit-rate 100.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket HUM via financials · score 24 ACRE via financials · score 18 AMR via materials · score 27 SLVM via materials · score 14 AEI via real_estate · score -1 OMH via real_estate · score -7
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