CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$MLI
materials · convergence -12 · conviction AVOID
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Why $MLI?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $249.7M (+152.0% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 5 convergent signals fired: finra_short, split, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction AVOID (-12 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
TAP via staples r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 9)
CHSN via staples r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 5)
VCTR via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 19)
FCPT via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 15)
HYFM via consumer r=+0.82 sympathetic (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=+0.82 sympathetic (score 8)
Signals Firing
finra_short split auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +1.7% +0.5% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.7% +0.5% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_gappers +1.0% -0.8% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% -0.8% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers -1.8% -5.2% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.8% -5.2% —
Lifetime: 0/6 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket TAP via staples · score 9 CHSN via staples · score 5 VCTR via financials · score 19 FCPT via financials · score 15 HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8
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