CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-04
$MRVL
semis · convergence -2 · conviction WATCH
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Why $MRVL?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $308.0M (+58.1% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 9 convergent signals fired: xbrl_ni, congress, oge_exec, pill, auto_sec_poison_pill
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-2 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, semis-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
YOU via tech r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 31)
BLZE via tech r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 23)
ZBH via biotech r=+0.77 sympathetic (score 35)
CRIS via biotech r=+0.77 sympathetic (score 33)
KHC via staples r=-0.73 divergent (score 19)
REED via staples r=-0.73 divergent (score 16)
Signals Firing
xbrl_ni congress oge_exec pill auto_sec_poison_pill auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-02 sec_top_gappers +3.4% +0.3% ✓ hit 2026-11-02 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.4% +0.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-12 sec_top_gappers +1.2% +1.1% — 2026-10-12 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.2% +1.1% — 2026-09-25 sec_top_gappers -0.1% -3.8% — 2026-09-25 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.1% -3.8% —
Lifetime: 2/6 wins · hit-rate 33.3% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket YOU via tech · score 31 BLZE via tech · score 23 ZBH via biotech · score 35 CRIS via biotech · score 33 KHC via staples · score 19 REED via staples · score 16
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