CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-06
$ORC
financials · convergence -9 · conviction WATCH
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Why $ORC?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $89.2M (+365.6% YoY)
Catalysts
Buyback authorization : Buyback authorization 2026-10-22
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-9 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
SGI via consumer r=+1.00 sympathetic (score 6)
CNNE via consumer r=+1.00 sympathetic (score 5)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score -4)
MMI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score -8)
FRD via materials r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 0)
GROY via materials r=+0.92 sympathetic (score -1)
Signals Firing
finra_short xbrl_ni buyback fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers -1.6% -4.6% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.6% -4.6% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +1.0% +0.6% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% +0.6% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +1.0% -0.2% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% -0.2% — 2026-09-25 sec_top_gappers +0.7% -0.5% — 2026-09-25 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.7% -0.5% —
Lifetime: 0/8 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket SGI via consumer · score 6 CNNE via consumer · score 5 AEI via real_estate · score -4 MMI via real_estate · score -8 FRD via materials · score 0 GROY via materials · score -1
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