CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$PFG
financials · convergence -13 · conviction AVOID
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Why $PFG?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $3.91B (+6.4% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $403.4M (-69.0% YoY)
Net Margin (CY2026Q3) : 13.7%
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 5 convergent signals fired: fed_overlay, sector_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Auditor change / restatement : non_reliance on
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, financials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
HYFM via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 8)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.92 sympathetic (score 1)
ARIS via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 22)
MUR via materials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers +0.3% -1.8% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.3% -1.8% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_gappers +1.2% +1.0% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.2% +1.0% — 2026-09-29 sec_top_gappers +0.4% -1.8% — 2026-09-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.4% -1.8% —
Lifetime: 0/6 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8 AEI via real_estate · score 1 OPEN via real_estate · score 1 ARIS via materials · score 22 MUR via materials · score 19
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