CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$ROKU
comms · convergence -15 · conviction AVOID
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Why $ROKU?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $164.2M (n/a YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 4 convergent signals fired: finra_short, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction AVOID (-15 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
CVI via energy r=-0.81 divergent (score 12)
DK via energy r=-0.81 divergent (score 3)
HYFM via consumer r=+0.66 sympathetic (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=+0.66 sympathetic (score 8)
CRIS via biotech r=+0.62 sympathetic (score 26)
LMAT via biotech r=+0.62 sympathetic (score 20)
Signals Firing
finra_short auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-03 sec_top_gappers +1.7% +1.5% — 2026-11-03 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.7% +1.5% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_gappers +1.3% +1.3% — 2026-10-19 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.3% +1.3% — 2026-10-06 sec_clean_gappers +0.8% +0.4% — 2026-10-06 sec_top_gappers +0.8% +0.4% — 2026-10-06 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.8% +0.4% — 2026-09-09 sec_top_gappers +1.0% +0.8% — 2026-09-09 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% +0.8% —
Lifetime: 0/9 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket CVI via energy · score 12 DK via energy · score 3 HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8 CRIS via biotech · score 26 LMAT via biotech · score 20
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