CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$SFIX
consumer · convergence -5 · conviction WATCH
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Why $SFIX?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -5 (3 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 3 convergent signals fired: auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-5 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, consumer-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
LMND via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 27)
PURR via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 24)
DINO via energy r=-0.89 divergent (score 20)
CVI via energy r=-0.89 divergent (score 16)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 9)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 5)
Signals Firing
auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-09-28 sec_top_gappers +4.0% +2.4% ✓ hit 2026-09-28 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.0% +2.4% ✓ hit 2026-09-25 sec_top_gappers +15.3% +14.6% ✓ hit 2026-09-25 sec_top_moat_emerging +15.3% +14.6% ✓ hit 2026-09-23 sec_top_gappers -16.7% -21.6% — 2026-09-23 sec_top_moat_emerging -16.7% -21.6% —
Lifetime: 4/6 wins · hit-rate 66.7% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket LMND via financials · score 27 PURR via financials · score 24 DINO via energy · score 20 CVI via energy · score 16 AEI via real_estate · score 9 OPEN via real_estate · score 5
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