Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · TDY
CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-10-05

$TDY

industrials · convergence -19 · conviction AVOID
Convergence Score
-19
Conviction
AVOID
Signals Firing
7
Track Record
0/9
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Why $TDY?

TDY -19 AVOID industrials

Quantitative

  • Net Income (CY2026Q2): $251.7M (+19.9% YoY)

Catalysts

  • Corporate action: spinoff 2026-09-28

Risks

  • Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk: Borrow rate 1.0%, distress score 5
  • Financial restatement: 1 restatement filing(s); investor confidence risk

Bear case

  • Value-trap risk: DeepValue score 8 suggests cheap multiples — bear case if catalyst doesn't materialize

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

  • NTST via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 14)
  • AMTB via financials r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 10)
  • FAMI via staples r=+0.79 sympathetic (score -2)
  • ABEV via staples r=+0.79 sympathetic (score -11)
  • VST via utilities r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 13)
  • EVRG via utilities r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 8)

Finance Desk Verdict

Independent agent review — valuation, statement audit, and earnings read on the latest filing.

Valuation: unclearAudit: cautionDesk score: 28/100

Administrative officer-departure 8-K/A for a quality defense name — the cooperation clause adds minor intrigue but the filing provides no financial catalyst, and without current fundamentals the desk has insufficient data to construct a high-conviction setup.

Bull case: TDY is a high-quality defense compounder with diversified instrumentation and imaging revenues; a single executive departure, if orderly, is a non-event against multi-year program backlogs. Price is near the 90-day low, offering a re-entry point if the broader defense spend cycle continues to expand. The cooperation agreement suggests a managed, non-acrimonious transition.

Bear case: If 'Van Wees' held a VP/SVP role tied to a major business unit or the FLIR integration, departure could signal internal strategic disagreement or execution friction. The amendment filing itself (vs. a clean original 8-K) adds a procedural footnote that sophisticated investors may read as rushed or contentious. Momentum score of 36 confirms no near-term price follow-through, and news_hits of 0 suggest the market has not yet re-rated the news — which could mean either benign or ignored, not bullish.

Signals Firing

deepvalueaudit_extrasauto_sec_cmgmtauto_macro_edgar_ftsauto_macro_term_premiumauto_macro_treasury_fiscalauto_macro_yield_curve
Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

Pick Track Record

DateListNext-day max runNext-day closeHit +2%?
2026-10-02sec_clean_gappers+0.9%+0.8%—
2026-10-02sec_top_gappers+0.9%+0.8%—
2026-10-02sec_top_moat_emerging+0.9%+0.8%—
2026-09-28sec_clean_gappers+0.7%-0.9%—
2026-09-28sec_top_gappers+0.7%-0.9%—
2026-09-28sec_top_moat_emerging+0.7%-0.9%—
2026-08-10sec_clean_gappers+0.6%-1.2%—
2026-08-10sec_top_gappers+0.6%-1.2%—
2026-08-10sec_top_moat_emerging+0.6%-1.2%—
Lifetime: 0/9 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for TDY. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 47.6% of the time across 403 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 39.6%. That is a +8.0 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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