CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$TSEM
semis · convergence -3 · conviction WATCH
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Why $TSEM?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -3 (5 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 5 convergent signals fired: finra_short, sc13d, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-3 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
EPAM via tech r=+0.89 sympathetic (score 33)
APP via tech r=+0.89 sympathetic (score 19)
VSEC via industrials r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 27)
CRCT via industrials r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 12)
TAP via staples r=-0.60 divergent (score 19)
WYHG via staples r=-0.60 divergent (score 10)
Signals Firing
finra_short sc13d auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-03 sec_top_gappers -1.9% -8.7% — 2026-11-03 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.9% -8.7% — 2026-11-02 sec_top_gappers +5.6% +5.0% ✓ hit 2026-11-02 sec_top_moat_emerging +5.6% +5.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-14 sec_top_gappers +0.8% +0.3% — 2026-10-14 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.8% +0.3% — 2026-10-13 sec_top_gappers -1.4% -5.9% — 2026-10-13 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.4% -5.9% — 2026-09-23 sec_top_gappers -1.0% -5.7% — 2026-09-23 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.0% -5.7% — 2026-09-17 sec_top_gappers +3.9% +2.0% ✓ hit 2026-09-17 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.9% +2.0% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 6/14 wins · hit-rate 42.9% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket EPAM via tech · score 33 APP via tech · score 19 VSEC via industrials · score 27 CRCT via industrials · score 12 TAP via staples · score 19 WYHG via staples · score 10
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