TELUS at a 6-year price floor filing its Q3 6-K — optically cheap large-cap telco franchise, but the relentless -34% selloff, zero news-momentum support, and unresolved FCF-vs-dividend overhang make this a watch-and-confirm rather than an actionable long until a stabilizing earnings print or capex inflection is in hand.
Bull case: At $8.19 USD (~$11.30 CAD at ~1.38 exchange), TU is near multi-year lows for a franchise infrastructure asset with 20M+ subscriber equivalents. Fiber buildout completion could inflect capex lower by late 2026-2027, freeing FCF to cover the dividend more comfortably. At that point, yield normalization to 6-7% would imply a price closer to $11-13 USD. Any Q3 print showing EBITDA stabilization or capex guidance reduction would be a positive re-rating catalyst.
Bear case: The 90-day chart is a straight line down with no technical support and no news-driven rally attempts. High interest rates prolong the FCF-dividend squeeze; a formal dividend cut (BCE already cut in early 2025, setting sector precedent) would be structurally negative. Further ARPU pressure from aggressive Rogers/Bell promotional activity, potential rights offerings to delever, and macro Canadian recession risk (housing, unemployment) all argue the bottom may not be in.
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