CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$UNFI
consumer · convergence 2 · conviction WATCH
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Why $UNFI?
Quantitative
Convergence score : 2 (5 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 5 convergent signals fired: merger, alpha, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (2 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Deal break risk : Antitrust/regulatory review or counterparty pullout would unwind the spread
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
LMND via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 27)
PURR via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 24)
DINO via energy r=-0.89 divergent (score 20)
CVI via energy r=-0.89 divergent (score 16)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 9)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 5)
Signals Firing
merger alpha auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +0.2% +0.1% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.2% +0.1% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +3.8% +2.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.8% +2.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-13 sec_top_gappers +4.2% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-13 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.2% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-09-15 sec_top_gappers +3.4% +3.3% ✓ hit 2026-09-15 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.4% +3.3% ✓ hit 2026-09-14 sec_top_gappers -0.3% -0.9% — 2026-09-14 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.3% -0.9% —
Lifetime: 6/10 wins · hit-rate 60.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket LMND via financials · score 27 PURR via financials · score 24 DINO via energy · score 20 CVI via energy · score 16 AEI via real_estate · score 9 OPEN via real_estate · score 5
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