CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$UNP
industrials · convergence -4 · conviction WATCH
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Why $UNP?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $1.99B (+6.2% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 6 convergent signals fired: finra_short, macro, orphan_lean, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-4 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
DIOD via semis r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 11)
ARRY via semis r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 9)
VSEC via industrials r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 23)
GNK via industrials r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 14)
RAIL via industrials r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 7)
CDLR via industrials r=+0.00 intra-sector (score 5)
Signals Firing
finra_short macro orphan_lean auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers +1.5% +0.7% — 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.5% +0.7% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +1.4% +1.0% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.4% +1.0% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +1.5% +1.4% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.5% +1.4% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_gappers -0.0% -1.8% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.0% -1.8% — 2026-10-16 sec_top_gappers -0.1% -0.7% — 2026-10-16 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.1% -0.7% —
Lifetime: 0/10 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket DIOD via semis · score 11 ARRY via semis · score 9 VSEC via industrials · score 23 GNK via industrials · score 14 RAIL via industrials · score 7 CDLR via industrials · score 5
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