Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · VALE
CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-09-24

$VALE

materials · convergence -19 · conviction AVOID
Convergence Score
-19
Conviction
AVOID
Signals Firing
5
Track Record
4/26
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Why $VALE?

VALE -19 AVOID materials

Quantitative

  • Convergence score: -19 (5 signals firing YoY)

Catalysts

  • Multi-spoke convergence: 5 convergent signals fired: finra_short, finra_regsho, auto_macro_credit_spreads, auto_macro_ofac_sanctions, auto_macro_options_gex

Risks

  • Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk: Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
  • Financial restatement: 1 restatement filing(s); investor confidence risk

Bear case

  • Squeeze unwind: Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

  • RAKR via staples r=+0.90 sympathetic (score 10)
  • XXII via staples r=+0.90 sympathetic (score 6)
  • KLAC via semis r=-0.85 divergent (score 6)
  • ESP via semis r=-0.85 divergent (score 3)
  • DINO via energy r=+0.71 sympathetic (score 1)
  • BZ via energy r=+0.71 sympathetic (score -8)

Signals Firing

finra_shortfinra_regshoauto_macro_credit_spreadsauto_macro_ofac_sanctionsauto_macro_options_gex
Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

Pick Track Record

DateListNext-day max runNext-day closeHit +2%?
2026-09-14sec_top_gappers+0.5%-1.0%—
2026-09-14sec_top_moat_emerging+0.5%-1.0%—
2026-09-11sec_top_gappers-2.7%-4.1%—
2026-09-11sec_top_moat_emerging-2.7%-4.1%—
2026-09-10sec_top_gappers+0.5%-0.3%—
2026-09-10sec_top_moat_emerging+0.5%-0.3%—
2026-09-08sec_top_gappers+0.7%-0.8%—
2026-09-08sec_top_moat_emerging+0.7%-0.8%—
2026-08-28sec_top_gappers+2.6%+0.4%✓ hit
2026-08-28sec_top_moat_emerging+2.6%+0.4%✓ hit
2026-08-24sec_top_gappers+1.9%+1.9%—
2026-08-24sec_top_moat_emerging+1.9%+1.9%—
Lifetime: 4/26 wins · hit-rate 15.4% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for VALE. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 48.3% of the time across 344 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 40.4%. That is a +7.9 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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