CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-09-22
$VSAT
comms · convergence -12 · conviction AVOID
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Why $VSAT?
Quantitative
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $-51.7M (+8.3% YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: finra_short, oge_exec, auto_macro_credit_spreads, auto_macro_crypto_fear_greed, auto_macro_edgar_fts
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction AVOID (-12 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
AVGO via semis r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 12)
MRVL via semis r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 10)
CARG via tech r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 20)
ATKR via tech r=+0.72 sympathetic (score 19)
REZI via consumer r=+0.59 sympathetic (score 29)
NXXT via consumer r=+0.59 sympathetic (score 23)
Signals Firing
finra_short oge_exec auto_macro_credit_spreads auto_macro_crypto_fear_greed auto_macro_edgar_fts auto_macro_eia_petroleum auto_macro_ofac_sanctions auto_macro_term_premium
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-09-15 sec_top_gappers +2.5% +0.5% ✓ hit 2026-09-15 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.5% +0.5% ✓ hit 2026-07-29 sec_top_gappers +10.9% +10.6% ✓ hit 2026-07-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +10.9% +10.6% ✓ hit 2026-07-28 sec_top_gappers +3.2% -5.3% ✓ hit 2026-07-28 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.2% -5.3% ✓ hit 2026-07-27 sec_top_gappers -0.9% -1.0% — 2026-07-27 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.9% -1.0% —
Lifetime: 6/8 wins · hit-rate 75.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket AVGO via semis · score 12 MRVL via semis · score 10 CARG via tech · score 20 ATKR via tech · score 19 REZI via consumer · score 29 NXXT via consumer · score 23
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