CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$WLFC
consumer · convergence -8 · conviction WATCH
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Why $WLFC?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $194.0M (-76.0% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $30.2M (-50.0% YoY)
Catalysts
Buyback authorization : Buyback authorization 2026-10-30
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-8 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, consumer-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
VCTR via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 19)
FCPT via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 15)
CVI via energy r=-0.89 divergent (score 12)
DK via energy r=-0.89 divergent (score 3)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 1)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.84 sympathetic (score 1)
Signals Firing
buyback split auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-03 sec_top_gappers +10.9% +10.7% ✓ hit 2026-11-03 sec_top_moat_emerging +10.9% +10.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-30 sec_top_gappers +7.5% +5.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-30 sec_top_moat_emerging +7.5% +5.7% ✓ hit 2026-10-28 sec_top_gappers +5.5% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-28 sec_top_moat_emerging +5.5% +4.1% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_gappers +1.5% +1.3% — 2026-10-27 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.5% +1.3% — 2026-09-30 sec_top_gappers -0.9% -4.2% — 2026-09-30 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.9% -4.2% —
Lifetime: 6/10 wins · hit-rate 60.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket VCTR via financials · score 19 FCPT via financials · score 15 CVI via energy · score 12 DK via energy · score 3 AEI via real_estate · score 1 OPEN via real_estate · score 1
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