CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-05
$YPF
energy · convergence -7 · conviction WATCH
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Why $YPF?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -7 (6 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 6 convergent signals fired: alpha, finra_short, fed_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-7 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
HYFM via consumer r=-0.89 divergent (score 8)
LCII via consumer r=-0.89 divergent (score 8)
VCTR via financials r=-0.81 divergent (score 19)
FCPT via financials r=-0.81 divergent (score 15)
LBTYA via comms r=-0.81 divergent (score 16)
CHTR via comms r=-0.81 divergent (score 7)
Signals Firing
alpha finra_short fed_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers -2.1% -2.8% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging -2.1% -2.8% — 2026-10-12 sec_top_gappers +1.4% -0.3% — 2026-10-12 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.4% -0.3% — 2026-10-09 sec_top_gappers +4.5% +3.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-09 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.5% +3.9% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_gappers +1.0% -0.2% — 2026-10-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% -0.2% — 2026-09-28 sec_top_gappers -0.7% -2.1% — 2026-09-28 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.7% -2.1% — 2026-09-17 sec_top_gappers +0.9% +0.9% — 2026-09-17 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.9% +0.9% —
Lifetime: 4/18 wins · hit-rate 22.2% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket HYFM via consumer · score 8 LCII via consumer · score 8 VCTR via financials · score 19 FCPT via financials · score 15 LBTYA via comms · score 16 CHTR via comms · score 7
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