Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · ADP
CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-09-25

$ADP

tech · convergence -7 · conviction WATCH
Convergence Score
-7
Conviction
WATCH
Signals Firing
8
Track Record
0/4
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Why $ADP?

ADP -7 WATCH tech

Quantitative

  • Convergence score: -7 (8 signals firing YoY)

Catalysts

  • Multi-spoke convergence: 8 convergent signals fired: merger, finra_short, congress, oge_exec, auto_merger_radar

Risks

  • Position-sizing discipline: Conviction WATCH (-7 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged

Bear case

  • Squeeze unwind: Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
  • Deal break risk: Antitrust/regulatory review or counterparty pullout would unwind the spread

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

  • DINO via energy r=-0.98 divergent (score -4)
  • BZ via energy r=-0.98 divergent (score -13)
  • LRCX via semis r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 1)
  • VREX via semis r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 0)
  • NXXT via consumer r=+0.90 sympathetic (score 20)
  • ADIG via consumer r=+0.90 sympathetic (score 14)

Signals Firing

mergerfinra_shortcongressoge_execauto_merger_radarauto_macro_edgar_ftsauto_macro_ofac_sanctionsauto_macro_options_gex
Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

Pick Track Record

DateListNext-day max runNext-day closeHit +2%?
2026-08-07sec_top_gappers+0.9%+0.9%—
2026-08-07sec_top_moat_core+0.9%+0.9%—
2026-08-06sec_top_gappers+0.6%-0.8%—
2026-08-06sec_top_moat_core+0.6%-0.8%—
Lifetime: 0/4 wins · hit-rate 0.0% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for ADP. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 47.8% of the time across 366 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 40.2%. That is a +7.6 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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