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Independent agent review — valuation, statement audit, and earnings read on the latest filing.
Established Colombian bank-holding ADR near multi-month lows, but the 6-K catalyst body is unreadable from this bundle, US momentum is deeply negative, and FX/macro headwinds dominate — no actionable edge until the filing content confirms a specific corporate event.
Bull case: If the 6-K discloses a dividend announcement, capital return, or positive credit-quality update, the stock's ~12% pullback from September highs creates a re-entry at a historically cheap price. A Banrep rate-cutting cycle lowers funding costs faster than asset repricing in a large diversified bank, expanding NIM. Corficolombiana's infrastructure concessions add asset-light earnings diversification not priced into a pure-banking multiple. The Sarmiento Angulo family's controlling stake historically signals conservative capital management.
Bear case: COP depreciation (structural risk given Colombia's fiscal deficit) directly erodes the USD ADR price regardless of local earnings. Momentum score of 26 and zero news hits confirm US investor disengagement — thin ADR volume (~141K shares/day) means any forced selling moves the price sharply. The quality score of 60 is respectable but not exceptional, and the moat_score of 0 suggests the scanner finds no durable-competitive-advantage signals in current data. If the 6-K is purely administrative (board update, regulatory filing), the move fades quickly.
| Date | List | Next-day max run | Next-day close | Hit +2%? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | sec_top_gappers | +0.6% | -1.0% | — |
| 2026-09-29 | sec_top_moat_emerging | +0.6% | -1.0% | — |
| 2026-09-15 | sec_top_gappers | +0.0% | -1.7% | — |
| 2026-09-15 | sec_top_moat_emerging | +0.0% | -1.7% | — |
| 2026-09-02 | sec_top_gappers | +1.5% | +0.8% | — |
| 2026-09-02 | sec_top_moat_emerging | +1.5% | +0.8% | — |
| 2026-08-26 | sec_top_gappers | -0.7% | -2.0% | — |
| 2026-08-26 | sec_top_moat_emerging | -0.7% | -2.0% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | sec_top_gappers | +4.0% | +1.7% | ✓ hit |
| 2026-08-04 | sec_top_moat_emerging | +4.0% | +1.7% | ✓ hit |
No recent earnings event.
You came here for AVAL. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.
Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 48.9% of the time across 372 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 39.8%. That is a +9.1 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/
29 of 30 founding seats left. The price goes up when they are gone.
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