Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · BMA
CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09

$BMA

financials · convergence -2 · conviction WATCH
Convergence Score
-2
Conviction
WATCH
Signals Firing
9
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Why $BMA?

BMA -2 WATCH financials

Quantitative

  • Convergence score: -2 (9 signals firing YoY)

Catalysts

  • Multi-spoke convergence: 9 convergent signals fired: fed_overlay, sector_overlay, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment

Risks

  • Position-sizing discipline: Conviction WATCH (-2 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged

Bear case

  • Multiple compression: If breadth deteriorates, financials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

  • MOD via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 23)
  • VSA via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 19)
  • AGNT via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 18)
  • AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 14)
  • SLVM via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 24)
  • EP via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 23)

Finance Desk Verdict

Independent agent review — valuation, statement audit, and earnings read on the latest filing.

Valuation: unclearAudit: cautionDesk score: 24/100

BMA is an Argentine bank ADR in a confirmed downtrend (-36% / 90d, fresh 180-day lows) with the catalyst filing unretrievable, no quote data, and macro/political risk that overwhelms any value case the price decline might imply — avoid until filing content is reviewed and price stabilizes.

Bull case: At $57.76 — 43% off the June peak — the selloff may have overshot fundamentals. If Milei's reform program remains on track (IMF program compliance, fiscal surplus maintenance, gradual FX unification), Banco Macro's strong domestic franchise and historically high ROE in inflationary environments support a recovery. Low foreign investor positioning post-selloff means mean-reversion upside on any positive catalyst.

Bear case: The -36% 90-day decline with the stock hitting new lows on the actual filing day is a warning sign, not a buying signal. Argentine banks have zero safe-haven characteristics — a renewed FX crisis, reversal of capital account liberalization, or political shift post-midterms could send the ADR to single digits as occurred in prior cycles (2019 PASO shock). Momentum score of 19/100 confirms persistent selling with no floor yet established. The value_score of 3 suggests the screener does not view current pricing as a compelling value entry.

Signals Firing

fed_overlaysector_overlayauto_macro_adp_payrollsauto_macro_banrep_colombiaauto_macro_bls_employmentauto_macro_durable_goodsauto_macro_fx_ratesauto_macro_options_gexauto_macro_yield_curve
Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

Sympathy Basket

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

You came here for BMA. You found it after it moved, the same way everyone else did.

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