CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$CBRE
real_estate · convergence -6 · conviction WATCH
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Why $CBRE?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $11.23B (+15.5% YoY)
Net Income (CY2026Q2) : $204.0M (-5.1% YoY)
Net Margin (CY2026Q3) : 3.9%
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 7 convergent signals fired: auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_durable_goods, auto_macro_fx_rates
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (-6 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, real_estate-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
ACRE via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 27)
NTST via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 25)
MOD via consumer r=+0.95 sympathetic (score 23)
VSA via consumer r=+0.95 sympathetic (score 19)
SKYD via comms r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 27)
SNT via comms r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 22)
Signals Firing
auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-29 sec_top_gappers +2.5% +0.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.5% +0.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-26 sec_top_gappers +0.0% -1.0% — 2026-10-26 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.0% -1.0% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +0.8% -0.3% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.8% -0.3% — 2026-10-20 sec_clean_gappers +1.1% +0.3% — 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers +1.1% +0.3% — 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.1% +0.3% —
Lifetime: 2/9 wins · hit-rate 22.2% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket ACRE via financials · score 27 NTST via financials · score 25 MOD via consumer · score 23 VSA via consumer · score 19 SKYD via comms · score 27 SNT via comms · score 22
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