CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-13
$CXW
financials · convergence 7 · conviction WATCH
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Why $CXW?
Quantitative
Revenue (CY2026Q2) : $684.9M (+27.3% YoY)
Catalysts
Buyback authorization : Buyback authorization 2026-11-04
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (7 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, financials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
ARIS via materials r=+0.95 sympathetic (score 34)
CTVA via materials r=+0.95 sympathetic (score 29)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 16)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.91 sympathetic (score 13)
CPB via staples r=+0.90 sympathetic (score 23)
MO via staples r=+0.90 sympathetic (score 13)
Signals Firing
sc13d oge_exec buyback fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_wiki_pageviews
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-05 sec_top_gappers +2.8% +1.6% ✓ hit 2026-11-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.8% +1.6% ✓ hit 2026-09-25 sec_clean_gappers +3.3% -1.4% ✓ hit 2026-09-25 sec_top_gappers +3.3% -1.4% ✓ hit 2026-09-25 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.3% -1.4% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 5/5 wins · hit-rate 100.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket ARIS via materials · score 34 CTVA via materials · score 29 AEI via real_estate · score 16 OPEN via real_estate · score 13 CPB via staples · score 23 MO via staples · score 13
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