CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$IAG
materials · convergence 0 · conviction WATCH
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Why $IAG?
Quantitative
Convergence score : 0 (8 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: finra_short, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk : Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 30
Material agreement / debt arrangement : plan_of_arrangement
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
VST via utilities r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 22)
NRG via utilities r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 17)
ACRE via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 27)
NTST via financials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 25)
MOD via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 23)
VSA via consumer r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 19)
Signals Firing
finra_short auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-27 sec_top_gappers +1.3% +1.2% — 2026-10-27 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.3% +1.2% — 2026-10-06 sec_top_gappers -1.8% -2.8% — 2026-10-06 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.8% -2.8% — 2026-10-05 sec_top_gappers +2.3% +0.6% ✓ hit 2026-10-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.3% +0.6% ✓ hit 2026-09-10 sec_top_gappers +3.9% +0.8% ✓ hit 2026-09-10 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.9% +0.8% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 4/8 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket VST via utilities · score 22 NRG via utilities · score 17 ACRE via financials · score 27 NTST via financials · score 25 MOD via consumer · score 23 VSA via consumer · score 19
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