CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-12
$KARX
materials · convergence -27 · conviction AVOID
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Why $KARX?
Quantitative
Convergence score : -27 (4 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 4 convergent signals fired: auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Going concern flag : Form 10-Q from Karbon-X Corp. (KARX) (CIK 0001729637) 2026-10-21
Financial restatement : 1 restatement filing(s); investor confidence risk
Late filing (NT) : Filed Form NT — accounting / control concern
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, materials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
BR via industrials r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 7)
HON via industrials r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 6)
OPEN via real_estate r=+0.99 sympathetic (score -3)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.99 sympathetic (score -5)
YETI via consumer r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 20)
NXXT via consumer r=+0.98 sympathetic (score 16)
Signals Firing
auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-23 sec_top_gappers +0.0% +0.0% — 2026-10-23 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.0% +0.0% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_gappers -10.0% -12.5% — 2026-10-22 sec_top_moat_emerging -10.0% -12.5% — 2026-10-21 sec_top_gappers +5.3% +5.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-21 sec_top_moat_emerging +5.3% +5.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers +2.5% -0.2% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging +2.5% -0.2% ✓ hit 2026-09-17 sec_top_gappers +0.8% -0.4% — 2026-09-17 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.8% -0.4% — 2026-09-16 sec_top_gappers +4.6% +4.6% ✓ hit 2026-09-16 sec_top_moat_emerging +4.6% +4.6% ✓ hit
Lifetime: 6/12 wins · hit-rate 50.0% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket BR via industrials · score 7 HON via industrials · score 6 OPEN via real_estate · score -3 AEI via real_estate · score -5 YETI via consumer · score 20 NXXT via consumer · score 16
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Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks
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