CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$MMA
industrials · convergence 6 · conviction WATCH
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Why $MMA?
Quantitative
Convergence score : 6 (8 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 8 convergent signals fired: ftd, auto_macro_adp_payrolls, auto_macro_banrep_colombia, auto_macro_bls_employment, auto_macro_durable_goods
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (6 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Multiple compression : If breadth deteriorates, industrials-wide multiples re-rate lower regardless of pick-specific thesis
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
HYSR via semis r=+0.83 sympathetic (score 13)
INDI via semis r=+0.83 sympathetic (score 13)
QBTS via tech r=+0.75 sympathetic (score 26)
CIIT via tech r=+0.75 sympathetic (score 24)
AORT via biotech r=+0.63 sympathetic (score 24)
ONCO via biotech r=+0.63 sympathetic (score 20)
Signals Firing
ftd auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-11-05 sec_top_gappers +57.9% +16.2% ✓ hit 2026-11-05 sec_top_moat_emerging +57.9% +16.2% ✓ hit 2026-11-04 sec_top_gappers +1.0% -10.4% — 2026-11-04 sec_top_moat_emerging +1.0% -10.4% — 2026-10-27 sec_top_gappers +9.9% +6.0% ✓ hit 2026-10-27 sec_top_moat_emerging +9.9% +6.0% ✓ hit 2026-09-29 sec_top_gappers +3.8% +1.8% ✓ hit 2026-09-29 sec_top_moat_emerging +3.8% +1.8% ✓ hit 2026-09-22 sec_top_gappers +0.5% -1.1% — 2026-09-22 sec_top_moat_emerging +0.5% -1.1% — 2026-09-17 sec_top_gappers -0.2% -0.2% — 2026-09-17 sec_top_moat_emerging -0.2% -0.2% —
Lifetime: 10/16 wins · hit-rate 62.5% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket HYSR via semis · score 13 INDI via semis · score 13 QBTS via tech · score 26 CIIT via tech · score 24 AORT via biotech · score 24 ONCO via biotech · score 20
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