Catalyst Edge · Scanner · Tickers · MTDR
CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-10-05

$MTDR

materials · convergence -6 · conviction WATCH
Convergence Score
-6
Conviction
WATCH
Signals Firing
9
Track Record
2/2
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Why $MTDR?

MTDR -6 WATCH materials

Quantitative

  • Revenue (CY2026Q2): $1.19B (+32.5% YoY)
  • Net Income (CY2026Q2): $390.7M (+160.0% YoY)

Catalysts

  • Multi-spoke convergence: 9 convergent signals fired: deepvalue, squeeze, finra_short, short, xbrl_ni

Risks

  • Hard-to-borrow / FTD risk: Borrow rate 6.0%, distress score 22

Bear case

  • Value-trap risk: DeepValue score 8 suggests cheap multiples — bear case if catalyst doesn't materialize
  • Crowded short: FINRA short volume + price-vs-short divergence both flagged — squeeze risk both ways

Sympathy basket (cerebro)

  • FAMI via staples r=+0.88 sympathetic (score -2)
  • ABEV via staples r=+0.88 sympathetic (score -11)
  • NTST via financials r=+0.79 sympathetic (score 14)
  • AMTB via financials r=+0.79 sympathetic (score 10)
  • ONDS via comms r=+0.66 sympathetic (score 18)
  • IRDM via comms r=+0.66 sympathetic (score 8)

Signals Firing

deepvaluesqueezefinra_shortshortxbrl_niauto_macro_edgar_ftsauto_macro_term_premiumauto_macro_treasury_fiscalauto_macro_yield_curve
Each tag is a spoke that flagged this ticker today. Weights tuned weekly against published outcomes.

Recent SEC Filings

Pick Track Record

DateListNext-day max runNext-day closeHit +2%?
2026-08-07sec_top_gappers+6.8%+6.5%✓ hit
2026-08-07sec_top_moat_emerging+6.8%+6.5%✓ hit
Lifetime: 2/2 wins · hit-rate 100.0% on +2% intraday

Sympathy Basket

Tickers Catalyst Edge tracks as moving with this name. Cross-correlation derived from sector + score-cohort proximity.

Earnings Catalyst

No recent earnings event.

Auto-generated from public filings + tier-1 wires. Catalyst Edge publishes its picks and its losses — see the trust report and methodology. Not financial advice. Confirm independently before trading.

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Tier 1 setups touched +2% intraday 47.6% of the time across 403 tracked calls. Baseline for everything else: 39.6%. That is a +8.0 point edge, measured from the NEXT OPEN — the first price you could actually pay, not the prior close. We publish the misses too: https://catalystedgescanner.com/trust/

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