CATALYST DOSSIER · UPDATED 2026-11-09
$NCPL
financials · convergence 12 · conviction WATCH
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Why $NCPL?
Quantitative
Convergence score : 12 (12 signals firing YoY)
Catalysts
Multi-spoke convergence : 12 convergent signals fired: finra_short, split, ftd, fed_overlay, sector_overlay
Risks
Position-sizing discipline : Conviction WATCH (12 score) — size accordingly; no specific catalyst-fade risk flagged
Bear case
Squeeze unwind : Short interest can compress before retail catches the move — entry timing critical
Sympathy basket (cerebro)
MOD via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 23)
VSA via consumer r=+0.99 sympathetic (score 19)
AGNT via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 18)
AEI via real_estate r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 14)
SLVM via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 24)
EP via materials r=+0.97 sympathetic (score 23)
Signals Firing
finra_short split ftd fed_overlay sector_overlay auto_macro_adp_payrolls auto_macro_banrep_colombia auto_macro_bls_employment auto_macro_durable_goods auto_macro_fx_rates auto_macro_options_gex auto_macro_yield_curve
Pick Track Record Date List Next-day max run Next-day close Hit +2%? 2026-10-20 sec_clean_gappers +15.8% -22.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_gappers +15.8% -22.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-20 sec_top_moat_emerging +15.8% -22.3% ✓ hit 2026-10-14 sec_clean_gappers +50.3% +24.5% ✓ hit 2026-10-14 sec_top_gappers +50.3% +24.5% ✓ hit 2026-10-14 sec_top_moat_emerging +50.3% +24.5% ✓ hit 2026-09-25 sec_clean_gappers -1.5% -20.6% — 2026-09-25 sec_top_gappers -1.5% -20.6% — 2026-09-25 sec_top_moat_emerging -1.5% -20.6% —
Lifetime: 6/9 wins · hit-rate 66.7% on +2% intraday
Sympathy Basket MOD via consumer · score 23 VSA via consumer · score 19 AGNT via real_estate · score 18 AEI via real_estate · score 14 SLVM via materials · score 24 EP via materials · score 23
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